Paolo Agnolin

My research explores the intersection of comparative politics, labor, and the political economy of technological change. I am particularly interested in how structural economic shifts and technological innovations drive societal and political transformation. Drawing on diverse perspectives from the social sciences and data analysis, I develop and test new arguments about how technology, labor market dynamics and changes in material conditions influence both the demand and supply sides of politics in post-industrial societies.

JOB MARKET PAPER

The Candidate Factory: Technological Change and Political Supply

The transition from industrial to post-industrial societies is reshaping political landscapes, with studies documenting a decline in working-class representation. This paper provides a structural explanation for the changing composition of political elites, focusing on the role of technological advancements such as automation and robotization. I argue that the distributional effects of automation play a key role in shaping political representation. Specifically, I theorize that automation alters the distribution of economic resources and opportunities across occupations, influencing who runs for office. I propose that those most negatively affected by automation, particularly individuals from working-class or automatable backgrounds, are increasingly underrepresented among political candidates. This research examines how material changes impact political candidacy, using data from U.S. state legislatures and local offices in California. The findings reveal that in areas with higher exposure to automation, there is a notable decline in candidates from occupations most affected by robotization. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the structural factors shaping the supply of political candidates and their implications for representation and policy outcomes.

PUBLICATIONS

• Paolo Agnolin, Italo Colantone and Piero Stanig. 2024. In Search of the Causes of the Globalization Backlash: Methodological Considerations on Post-Treatment Bias. Comparative Political Studies 
• Paolo Agnolin, Elena Marseglia and Zachary Parolin. 2024. The political economy of poverty and inequality. Ch. 11 in Handbook on the Political Economy of Social Policy, Edward Elgar Publishing
   

WORKING PAPERS

• Paolo Agnolin, Massimo Anelli, Italo Colantone and Piero Stanig. Robots Replacing Trade Unions: novel data and evidence from Western Europe
• Paolo Agnolin. The Candidate Factory: Technological Change and Political Supply
• Paolo Agnolin, Massimo Anelli, Italo Colantone and Piero Stanig. Trade Unions and Voting in Western Europe
• Paolo Agnolin and Pablo Beramendi. The nationalization of populism