Konstantin Bogatyrev
Field: Comparative Politics, Political Economy
Research Interests: Accountability, Authoritarianism, Democratic Erosion, Illiberalism, LGBTQ Politics
Expected Graduation: June 2025
References
- Catherine De Vries (catherine.devries@unibocconi.it)
- Thomas Pepinsky (pepinsky@cornell.edu)
- Lanny Martin (lanny.martin@unibocconi.it)
Contact
Bocconi University
Department of Social and Political Sciences, office 6.C3.01
Via G. Roentgen 1, 20136, Milan (Italy)
I am a scholar of comparative political behavior and the political economy of illiberalism. My dissertation sheds light on electoral accountability for illiberal governments, including authoritarians and far-right leaders. It contributes to our understanding of how crises, immigration, and state-sponsored homophobia affect voters in contexts where governments undermine democratic norms and pursue exclusionary policies. I study these issues using survey experiments and causal inference with observational data, and as well as text-as-data (NLP) approaches.
I am currently on the job market.
JOB MARKET PAPER
Shifting Ground: The 2023 Earthquake and Electoral Accountability in Turkey
Do crises and external shocks undermine public support for authoritarian governments? I study the effects of the 2023 earthquake in Turkey on support for the incumbent by leveraging georeferenced data on earthquake intensity, electoral returns and survey responses. Using causal panel data and unexpected-event-during-survey designs, I show that the earthquake reduced support for the ruling party both immediately after the disaster, in the general election three months later and in the 2024 local elections. Moreover, I find important heterogeneity in turnout effects: moderately hit areas saw higher mobilization (backlash), while severely affected localities experienced voter demobilization due to displacement. These findings have direct implications for public accountability in autocracies and regime stability in crisis contexts.
WORKING PAPERS
- Bogatyrev, K. "Shifting Ground: The 2023 Earthquake and Electoral Accountability in Turkey"
- Bogatyrev, K. "When Immigration Hurts: Voter Accountability for Far-Right Governments"
- Haas, V., Bogatyrev, K., Abou-Chadi, T., Klüver, H. and Stoetzer, L. "The Electoral Effects of State-Sponsored Homophobia"
- Bogatyrev, K., and Stoetzer, L. "Synthetic Control Methods for Proportions"
- Bogatyrev, K., De Vries, C.E. and Arceneaux, K. "Youth and Far-Right Support: A Survey Experiment in Europe"