Ideological Polarization of Citizens in Western Democracies: A Ground-Up Analysis
In an increasingly polarized world, the 2024 elections represent a critical juncture for numerous democracies. This year, the most prolific in terms of political elections in recent history, highlights a concerning trend: the growing ideological polarization among citizens. From the presidential elections in the United States to parliamentary elections in Europe and beyond, there is a noticeable shift in voter preferences towards more extreme and anti-establishment positions.
In recent parliamentary elections in Italy, the vote fragmented among various populist parties and anti-establishment movements, revealing an electorate divided and disillusioned with traditional institutions. Similar situations occurred in France, where both the hard left and Marine Le Pen’s party gained ground, and in Spain, with the rise of the right-wing party VOX.
In Germany too, recent elections saw a surge in support for the left-wing populists of Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht and for Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a right-wing party known for its Eurosceptic and anti-immigration stances. Similarly, in Sweden, the Sweden Democrats, another right-wing party, achieved significant results, indicating a general trend towards political polarization across Europe.
A study conducted by Mirko Draca (University of Warwick) and Carlo Schwarz (Department of Economics, Bocconi), published in the Economic Journal, analyzed the ideological beliefs of citizens that underpin these trends using an innovative methodology. By applying the machine learning algorithm Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to political survey data, the researchers identified a “disappearing center” in several nations. Particularly in the United States, there has been a significant shift of citizens from centrist ideologies to anti-establishment positions, which are characterized by low trust in many societal institutions.
The role of trust in institutions emerges as a crucial element in defining citizens’ ideologies. Carlo Schwarz explains, “Questions related to trust in institutions play a central role in defining citizens’ ideologies, in addition to the traditional left-right scale.” This phenomenon translates into an ideological fragmentation where support or distrust towards institutions becomes a fundamental discriminant of political positions.
The study utilized data from the World Value Survey (WVS) and the European Values Study (EVS), covering multiple countries and a wide range of political questions. The findings revealed that in the United States, the share of citizens identifying with “low-trust” ideologies increased from 30% in the late 1980s to 50% by the mid-2000s. Similar trends, though less pronounced, were observed in several European countries.
In Italy, for example, the WVS showed increased support for populist parties, with a decrease in trust in traditional political institutions. In France, the EVS data highlighted a growing skepticism towards the European Union, accompanied by a rise in nationalist and anti-immigration positions.
The findings contribute to a better understanding of polarization in Western societies. One the one hand, there is increasing evidence pointing towards the greater ideological polarization of politicians in particular in the United States. On the other hand, whether the increased polarization of politicians is driven by changes in ideology of citizens, greater ideological sorting by political parties, or shift from economic (e.g., taxes) to social issues (e.g., abortion) is still part of an ongoing debate. The paper also helps to move beyond measures of citizen ideology based on a self-evaluation on a left-right scale.
The implications of these findings are significant. Growing polarization among citizens can lead to greater political and social instability. Increasing distrust in institutions can weaken social cohesion and fuel internal conflicts. “Our research indicates that ideological polarization is not just a phenomenon among elected officials but deeply involves the general population,” according to Carlo Schwarz. This political fragmentation can impact the functioning of democracies, making it more challenging to achieve compromises and shared solutions. Moreover, polarization can exacerbate social tensions and increase the risk of civil conflicts.
The work of Draca and Schwarz provides a new perspective on ideological polarization, highlighting the importance of trust in institutions and the disappearance of centrist ideologies in various Western democracies. These findings prompt a profound reflection on current political dynamics and the future challenges for democratic societies.
