After 80 Years: The War in the Minds of Italians

The 80th anniversary of the end of World War II is being celebrated in 2025. Judging by the perception of Italians and their concerns, however, it would seem that much less time has passed. 

A study conducted by Democracy Monitoring Lab at the Department of Social and Political Sciences, in collaboration with SWG, asked a representative sample of Italians a series of questions. The aim was to understand the perception of the current geopolitical context and the legacy left by World War II.

It can be assumed that Italians who consider the global geopolitical situation "highly unstable" (equivalent to a score of 70 or more on a scale of 1 to 100) are very worried. This group represents more than 50% of the population. The percentage increases considerably among the youngest respondents (ages 18-24), where the very worried increase to 63.4%, as well as among respondents over 64 years old (60.3%). The most worried by far are students, with 71.3%. The percentage also varies according to political persuasion: at the extremes are those who vote for La Lega (30.9%) and the Verdi-Sinistra Alliance (62.9%). Finally, it is interesting to note that Italians who are undecided or intend to submit a blank voting paper are the most worried (69.1%).

Among the main factors of instability is the fear of a new world conflict. When asked what the causes of a possible new global conflict could be, Italians identified elements that partly evoke those triggering World War II. The risk factors that emerge as predominant are conflicts between individual states and their political leaders, along with the competition between these countries for control of economic and natural resources (many Italians mention gas, oil and semiconductors for example). Just like 80 years ago, the role and ambition of individual states seem to be perceived as the main threat to global stability. Conversely, ideological and religious extremism appear less relevant today compared to World War II. Socioeconomic stability and tensions between social classes are also perceived as less decisive for a possible escalation of war. While unemployment, poverty and social tensions were factors that contributed to the rise of totalitarianism and World War II, today these elements are rarely cited as potential causes of a war. 

Confirming this trend, nation states are not only perceived as the main risk factors, but also as the most decisive actors in preventing a new conflict. More than 50% of Italians believe that the most important nations in terms of military power (the US, China and Russia) are the main guarantors of stability, while only 17% recognize that supranational and intergovernmental institutions such as the European Union and the United Nations play this role. These data, together with the data cited above, seem to contradict one of the main legacies of World War II, namely the creation of international institutions devoted to maintaining peace and cooperation between states. It is interesting, however, to note that trust in these institutions as the main guarantors of stability varies according to political affiliation, reaching the highest among voters of the Partito Democratico (24.8%) and the lowest among the voters of all three main center-right parties (15.5%).

The role of international institutions, and the European Union in particular, takes on greater importance when looking at the need to create a common military defense. In light of the legacy of World War II, which favored economic and political cooperation among the Old Continent countries but not military integration, it emerges that 73.4% of Italians believe it is important to take this further step. The need for a common European defense is further reinforced due to Italians’ lack of confidence in the national government’s ability to protect the country from new threats: on a scale of 1 to 5, almost half of Italians give a score of 1 or 2. This includes in particular digital threats, i.e. cyberattacks.

While on one hand Italians hope for a strengthening of the common European defense, on the other they show little confidence in the effectiveness of other areas of intervention by international organizations. For example, only 43.2% of Italians believe that cooperation projects in developing countries should be financed by the United Nations, while the remaining 56.8% would prefer them to be managed directly by the Italian government. Again, the political differences are marked: among left-wing voters, support for the United Nations rises to 66%, while among right-wing voters it is half that percentage.

Now, 80 years since the end of World War II, the fears and expectations of the population testify to a complex relationship with the legacy of the conflict. While critical elements of continuity remain, such as fear of the ambitions of nation states, significant transformations are emerging, with ideology and socioeconomic tensions playing a less central role. The European Union — which was created in part to prevent new conflicts between its members — is now perceived as a key player in common defense. At the same time, it seems essential for international institutions — and the United Nations in particular — to work on their ability to prove effective. The legacy of war, therefore, remains an essential reference, but its meaning and implications continue to be redefined over time.