What the Worker of Tomorrow Will Be Like

The aging of the workforce reflects the aging of the general population, the postponement of the retirement age, and the increase in life expectancy. According to forecasts by the World Health Organization (WHO), in 2030 one in six people will be at least 60 years old, since by 2030 the share of the population aged 60 and over will increase from 1 billion (2020 data) to 1.4 billion. By 2050, the global population of people aged 60 and over is expected to double to 2.1 billion. In particular, the number of people aged 80 or older is expected to triple between 2020 and 2050, reaching 426 million people. Average life expectancy has risen by more than 40 years, from 32 years in 1900 to 73 years in 2020, according to WHO data. An increase that will also bring with it a postponement in the retirement age, especially in the nine OECD countries (including Italy) that link the legal retirement age with life expectancy.

All these factors have led to an increase in workers aged over 55. In the OECD area, the employment rate of workers aged 55-64 reached 64% in the second quarter of 2023, more than 8% with respect to a decade ago.
In this regard, Boeri explains: "This entails a change in the organization of work. Older workers can train young people because the communication skills of the former improve over time. On the other hand, over time they gradually lose ability in terms of speed of execution, as well as in the carrying out of manual and demanding work."
The shrinking of the young workforce also lies at the root of the lack of workers that companies lament. Suffice it to say that according to estimates by the World Economic Forum, by 2030 talent shortage will translate into 85 million people less at work; this means that around $8.5 trillion in potential annual revenue will go unrealized.
"The demographic decline will also have repercussions on creativity. The great discoveries that led to the Nobel Prizes date back to their youth. Having fewer young people means reducing a country's innovation rate", warns the Bocconi economist.
Furthermore, a high number of elderly people and a low number of young people puts the pension and health care systems at risk due to increased expenses and decreased fiscal revenues for the state. In the study entitled "Funding the Future: The Impact of Population Ageing on Revenues across Levels of Government", the OECD predicts that the aging of the population is expected to lead to a decline of up to 8% in general government revenues. "Immigration can make an important contribution in terms of demographics and financing of social security systems," Boeri remarks.

Another major trend will be the progressive feminization of the world of work, with the entry of an ever-increasing number of women. "In some countries, such as the Nordic economies, we have almost attained gender parity in employment rates; in other countries, like Italy, we seriously lag behind", admits Boeri. According to what is reported in the Global Gender Gap Report, to date no country in the world has achieved full gender equality. The overall gender gap score for the 146 countries included in the 2023 report is 68.4%, an improvement of 0.3% compared to 2022.
The progressive feminization of the workforce will lead to a growing adoption of flexible and smart working methods by companies in the future. Also because remote work is here to stay. "We will move towards hybrid work, with 3+2 or 2+3 workweek schedules, toiling from home and at the office. It is also necessary to strengthen contributions for lower wage levels, because this is likely to increase the bargaining power of women in the family household, together with policies that reconcile employment responsibilities with parental duties through an extension of the paternity leave. It would also be useful to incentivize fathers to take parental leave."

A third major trend in the world of employment is technological innovation, driven primarily by digitalization and artificial intelligence. A widespread fear is that the latter "will steal people's jobs". In this regard, Boeri concludes: "The history of humanity is dotted with technological pessimism, but if we look at the data, the end of work has never materialized. On the contrary, in many countries we are at historic highs in terms of employment rates. However, artificial intelligence poses new challenges. In some areas, such as economic research or medical research, it is complementary to people's work. In other areas, it can replace human labor. Let's think about the work of movie dubbers, with whom I recently spoke in preparation for the Trento International Economics Festival, which this year will have at its center the challenges posed by artificial intelligence".