Javier Milei: The Newly Elected President (Maybe Too New)

It is perhaps a necessary change of course, given the economic slump in which the country has found itself for too long. At the same time, however, it was a change not very much expected, at least not in such a disruptive way. The 19 November elections in Argentina brought the victory of Javier Milei with a total number of votes beyond all expectations, especially since the polls had the contenders on a level playing field. Perhaps being the outgoing Minister of Economy in a country grappling with an economic crisis, as many have pointed out, did not benefit Peronist candidate, Sergio Massa. We cover this and more on the South American country in this interview with Antonella Mori, expert on Latin America and Professor in the Department of Social and Political Sciences at Bocconi University.

What surprised everyone was the scale of Milei's success. How did this happen?

Nearly a 12-point gap is frankly unpredictable on the eve of the election, when the most common assumption was a head-to-head last vote. It must also be said, however, that right from the start – after the outcome of the first round – both the Together for Change candidate, Patricia Bullrich, who was left out of the runoff, and former president, Mauricio Macri, endorsed Milei. This made a difference, in addition to the soaring popularity of Milei among young people, as he was able to win them over thanks to a very well-orchestrated social media campaign.

So, given these considerations, why was it leaning toward a situation of uncertainy?

It was not known whether Bullrich's moderate voters would vote for a somewhat extreme candidate. The question was: will they follow through in voting for Milei, or will they be afraid to? Also, given that the alternative was Massa, he was considered a moderate candidate among Peronists and could therefore represent a credible option for them. The results, of course, show that they listened.

For starters, who is Milei?

He calls himself an "anarcho-capitalist." Certainly, given his background as a TV commentator, he is very skilled in entertaining the public. Additionally, he has extremely strong convictions and a very clear political agenda that he will try to implement, despite Parliament's weakness, which will force him to continuously and tirelessly search for alliances.

One of his mantras is 'less government', especially in economics.

He was clear in his agenda: the state should be left with some very important tasks, such as defense, while the private sector should be given a great deal of leeway. He has already announced that he will cut public spending by 15%, a significant amount, and that he will reduce and merge the ministries, which will be eight in all. There will be a big push for privatization, which will be very extensive and will include the oil industry.

Another one of Milei's strong points is so-called dollarization.

I am more skeptical about this. He has also announced that he wants to abolish the central bank, but – for a country as large as Argentina – giving up monetary policy means forfeiting an important instrument of economic policy. The central bank will be given more autonomy, and as far as dollarization is concerned, I think the most feasible solution is the one proposed by Bullrich, which is to make the dollar legal tender along with the pesos. I believe that, in this case, Milei would not have the backing to get his most extreme vision approved in Parliament.

Let us now turn to foreign policy. During the election campaign, Milei declared his intention to break off relations with socialist and communist countries. Among them, however, are the country's main trading partners – namely China and Brazil. What will happen now?

For now, it is already evident that the best friend of Milei's Argentina will be Israel along with the United States under Biden, but even more so under Trump, if the former president were to win next November's election (it is no coincidence that Trump was among the warmest in congratulating Milei). As for China and Brazil specifically, diplomatic relations are one thing – which will be weakened as stated by Milei during the campaign – but economic relations are another, which in my opinion will not be affected. Preventing an Argentine producer from selling in Brazil, for example, would be a contradiction to the theory of the diminished role of the state in the economy. I believe that Milei will be consistent in this, just as I believe that he will not allow Argentina to join the enlarged BRICS, thus not following up on the decision taken last August. There will be major changes regarding diplomatic relations, although it must be said that when Bolsonaro was in office in Brazil and the Peronist government in Argentina, relations were never interrupted.

Was there really a need for such a drastic change?

There is no doubt that there was a need for change. Argentina is a country accustomed to high inflation; however, 15% is one thing while the current 150% is another, and it is set to increase. A change of course is necessary, and we will see if that of Milei will not be too drastic.

Climate change is a delicate issue, on which Milei expressed himself in non-reassuring terms.

He is a denier in this sense, as are Trump and Bolsonaro. That is, he does not attribute climate change to human activity. Fortunately, unlike Bolsonaro – who in Brazil controlled the world's largest green lung, the Amazon rainforest – he does not have this power, as Argentina is not as influential in climate change as Brazil is.