Imminent Collapse or Relaunch of European Integration?

Since the global financial crisis in 2008, many European observers and even senior political figures have been predicting the EU's imminent collapse or disintegration. A succession of crises (the euro, migration, Brexit, Covid-19) gave the impression that such predictions were about to come true. However, others claim that European integration has always progressed through crisis and see a much brighter future for Europe. Nobody can, however, deny that this is a particularly trying moment in the history of the EU.
Russia's aggression on Ukraine has made life extremely difficult for the European Union and the victory of the pro-Putin Robert Fico (often referred as the "Red Bully") in the recent Slovakian elections could make things even more complicated, thus putting the pro-Ukraine, pro-NATO position of the Union under further strain.

Inflation has reared its ugly head and there is mounting criticism concerning ECB policy to tackle inflation. Just a few days ago Italian Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti criticized Christine Lagarde's decision to keep interest rates high claiming that it had slowed down the Italian economy and that his government had face an additional €15 billion in interest payments. Giorgetti (and he is not alone in that) believes that a new stability pact needs to be drafted before the end of the year. It is very clear the sovereignist, Eurosceptic parties will use Europe as a scapegoat to explain the economic difficulties in many member states and use this as an excuse to tell their voters why so many electoral promises have not been kept. Indeed, in next year's European parliamentary elections, Eurosceptic parties across the EU could emulate Nigel Farage's 2014 electoral triumph. If that were the case what would the EU's future be?

The surreal political debate in the EU isn't helping the plight of Europe either. The idea that the mainstream European People's Party – the Christian-Democratic party of many of the Founding Fathers of Europe – should form a coalition with the Eurosceptic right is frankly bizarre and could easily contribute to the disintegration of the Union. Furthermore, the investigation that uncovered corruption in the European Parliament in December 2022 could end up back on the front pages of newspapers and that would do no good for the reputation of EU politics.
Then of course there is the problem of migration, which some observers believe could end up being the monocausal explanation of a collapse of the EU. Indeed, as we all know, back in 2016 migration played an important role in the victory of Brexiteers. "Schengen and a United Europe died in Ventimiglia. The time for diplomacy is over. They are invading us but we must react forcefully before it is too late." These were the fateful words uttered by Flavio Di Muro, Mayor of Ventimiglia at the annual meeting of Salvini's Lega in Pontida where the special guest was Marine Le Pen. On the topic of migration, the last few weeks have also been characterized by an unprecedented clash between the Italian and the German government with Meloni accusing the European ally of "doing solidarity with other people's borders" given the fact that the Scholz administration continues to fund boats operated by NGOs in the Mediterranean Sea.
Finally, the EU's form of government expressed by the Lisbon Treaty needs reforming. The unpleasant Sofagate scandal in Turkey in 2021 seems to have been forgotten, but the underlying problem of the allocation of powers between the President of the European Union, the President of the European Commission and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy remains a thorny issue and it is not the only one. The war in Ukraine initially reignited a positive debate about building a common European defence, but that has quickly died down. Currently, not only we don't have an answer to Henry Kissinger's famous question "Who do I call if I call Europe", but there are serious doubts as to whether anyone would actually bother to answer the phone, because everyone seems far too busy with the forthcoming election campaign for the European Parliament, which promises to be long and ugly. The next elections could be a make-or-break moment for the EU.