Escape Is Hard, Once You Fall into the Demographic Trap

The European Union has achieved remarkable successes since its inception. It has fostered peace and stability, established a thriving single market, and made substantial economic progress. Alongside these achievements, the EU has enhanced consumer protection, implemented stringent environmental standards, and made significant strides in upholding human rights, democracy, and the rule of law.
These results were achieved despite a number of obstacles, such as the financial crisis of 2008, the debt crisis of 2010, the migration crisis of 2015, Brexit and after 2020, the Pandemic, along with the emergence of a new crisis involving war and inflation.
As we assess the state of the EU today, it is evident that challenges persist, with the climate crisis looming large. Yet, lurking behind the scenes is another pressing issue: the demographic decline of EU member states. Currently, Italy's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) stands at a mere 1.25. To put this in perspective, the replacement rate necessary to maintain a stable population is 2.1 children per woman. With the TFR which has been persistently low for decades, we are now witnessing a demographic trap characterized by shrinking generations of potential parents and a consequent decline in the number of children born. Regrettably, this issue is not unique to Italy; declining fertility rates are now becoming evident in Nordic countries as well.
One might wonder if it's the responsibility of policymakers to address low fertility rates. Tellingly, the issue of low fertility is no longer a central focus on the EU policy agenda. This shift can be attributed partly to a reluctance to engage with what most people consider a personal choice and partly to the fact that previous policy efforts to boost fertility have had a poor track record.

While low fertility rates may have faded somewhat from the EU policy agenda, influential figures such as Elon Musk and Pope Francis advocate significant changes in procreation. However, even by taking strong positions on childbearing (notably, Elon Musk is the father of 11 children), there isn't a realistic expectation for the EU to return to the replacement rate in the foreseeable future. The EU seems destined for population decline and its member states must prepare for this new reality. In fact, the primary policy challenge at hand is to prevent a steeper decline in fertility, akin to what many East Asian countries, such as South Korea with its concerning 0.78 fertility rate, are experiencing. As the EU grapples with the challenges stemming from its aging population, a further decline in fertility will only exacerbate these issues.
So what is behind the fertility decline? Becoming a parent today is increasingly associated with success and privilege in other aspects of life. While historically lower socioeconomic classes tended to have more children than those with a higher status, this trend has weakened or even reversed in many parts of the EU. For example, in the Nordic countries, childlessness has grown most rapidly among individuals with lower educational levels. This suggests that the concern should not be that those with fewer resources have "too many children," but rather that childbearing becomes socially polarized, and individuals with fewer economic and social resources feel compelled to opt out of parenthood altogether.
Regrettably, there isn't a simple and swift fix for the demographic challenges facing the EU.

It seems that decreasing birthrates in Europe stem from more than just family policy; it's a broader problem related to family formation. Recent studies indicate that people's desire to have children is influenced by their level of social trust and personal resilience, while feelings of uncertainty, political polarization, and social exclusion lowering such propensity.
Still, provision of affordable and high-quality early childhood education to all families has a significant correlation with higher fertility. Moreover, investing in early childhood education is beneficial in the long run, as it enhances the well-being and development of human capital in future generations. Universal, high-quality early childhood education also helps mothers maintain their presence in the workforce while ensuring the well-being of their children. On this issue, the EU nation states still have some way to go.Top of Form