The Antidote Against Sovereignism

The disengagement of the United States and the fragility of the European Union put at risk the balance of power achieved with the end of the Cold War. 2024 is a watershed year: "If there is a triumph of sovereignism, the rules of geopolitics will be rewritten", underlines Massimo Morelli, professor of Political Science and Economics at Bocconi University. The antidote to the populist drift is the participation of disillusioned voters: "But to convince them we need to create a scenario of hope that brings us closer to the United States of Europe."

Europe and the United States will bring much of the West to the polls. What is at stake?
What matters are US elections, because in Europe it can only get worse: either things remain as they are now, with a coalition that has good intentions but little decision-making capacity, or we will be moving towards greater protection of national sovereignties. In the United States, however, there is greater uncertainty due to the differences that exist between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, but as in Europe change would be only downwards. With Trump, global cooperation will become more difficult because his populism has two distinctive characteristics: the greater protectionism of America First and what we call disengagement, the progressive distancing from the problems of international relations. There is a risk that the system we have known up to now, with Western democracies dominating in terms of values and economics, may be over.

Why is the international structure that has dominated the world since the end of the Cold War at risk?
It may happen because the leaders who have the best chances of being elected are going in the direction of a system more centered on the idea of the nation. The intentions of the populist leaders of the Western superpowers automatically play into the hands of the BRICS which, thanks to the bloc's enlargement that took place this year, have seen their weight increase: they now represent 40% of the world population and generate more than 35% of global GDP. All this is obviously to the advantage of those who want to increase their share of geopolitical power: China and Russia.

The two powers behind tensions in Ukraine and Taiwan.
As long as the United States and Europe support Ukraine's effort, the conflict will continue, even if the border moves by only a few meters. But if international cooperation weakens, there is a lower likelihood that support for Ukraine will continue. Putin understands this very well; he has always been in favor of populists out of convenience: it is not out of sympathy that he directly or indirectly backed Trump and the various European sovereignists, but because he knows that in a weaker geopolitical scenario the resolve of the West in supporting Ukraine may falter, leading to a peace treaty that would establish the border where the line of conflict is today.

And Taiwan?
The January elections did not change much: the party supportive of independence, which is also full of economic interests, won. They will not go for independence if it means being invaded or bombed by China, because there is the risk that the United States would not come to their rescue. With Trump's victory, however, Taiwan could become a problem from 2025 onward, especially if the United States will have achieved technological autonomy, because sovereign disengagement could push China to attack. But I don't think this is an imminent danger.

The other heated front is war in the Middle East, with an explosion of violence between Israel and Palestine.
It is not a new problem and past episodes have always ended when the United States decided to force Israel to stop. That's how it will end this time too. This will not bring a resolution to the conflict, let's be clear: it will always be about negotiating a prolonged ceasefire, because in that context there can never be a solution unless a more moderate leadership comes to the fore on both sides. And at the moment there are no moderate leaders: neither Netanyahu, nor absolutely Hamas.

What role can the European Union play on the international stage?
Europe's ability to influence global politics is increasingly poor because there is a lack of coordination between member states. In recent years, especially with Covid, there have been some initiatives for greater cooperation, but today the political scenario is going in another direction. And on the other hand, this seems to be the, hopefully temporary, the will of the citizens. In June, a surprise could come if there is mass participation of Europe's supporters at the polls: if I were the political leader of a pro-EU party I would push very hard on electoral mobilization to change the trend in favor of nationalism.

Political participation is the antidote to the populism and sovereignism?
Yes, participation of those who are now bystanders requires creating a scenario of hope. If you go to vote, you do so because you believe that Europe can achieve something, especially about the problems we face that are global in nature: it's a paradox that there is widespread thinking that the solution to the climate crisis, current wars and the artificial intelligence revolution can be national sovereignty. To reverse this trend, leaders must speak to European citizens, not simply national voters, about the defense of the environment and common spending policies.

It is not easy to get the 27 EU countries to agree on common spending.
During the election campaign, a European unemployment benefit should be proposed, with specific policies to solve the problem by drawing on common funds. Frugal countries are likely to be more flexible when it comes to directly supporting people and not governments. A policy that finances unemployment benefits can accelerate the process of creating a European identity and increase trust in EU institutions, reducing the distance between European institutions and citizens, especially felt by the less well-off. These would be small steps of integration towards the distant dream of the United States of Europe, to which we are still nowhere near.